Iran Conflict — Decade Projection

Years 1–10 · Costs vs Potential Gains · Sourced Estimates · All figures $B 2026 USD

Fast-Stabilization Model → Scenario-modeled estimates with significant uncertainty

Combat Yr 1

Occupation & Insurgency Yr 2–3

Stabilization Attempt Yr 4–6

Drawdown Yr 7–8

Post-Occupation Yr 9–10

Methodology: Decade costs modeled on Iraq War ($2.2T direct/10yr, $3T+ inclusive per Brown University Costs of War Project & Harvard Kennedy School) and Afghanistan ($2.3T/20yr) precedents, scaled for Iran's larger population (88M vs Iraq's 25M), terrain, 610K+ active military, and industrial base. Best-case assumes swift regime collapse + cooperative population. Worst-case assumes protracted insurgency + regional proxy war expansion. Pre-war gas baseline: $2.81–$2.94/gal (Jan 2026, AAA data).

US Citizen Impact: Consumer costs include gas prices, inflation pass-through, tax burden, and opportunity cost of diverted federal spending. "Good outcomes" require best-case political/military conditions that have not materialized in any US occupation since WWII.

Gains Model: Economic gains are analyst projections from third-party sources (Quincy Institute, EIA, Reuters, BBC, CSIS), not administration commitments. The administration has framed the conflict in security terms, not economics. Dollar figures for potential gains represent what US firms and taxpayers could capture under best-to-worst case victory scenarios, based on historical precedent and Iran's resource/market fundamentals.

This is an analytical framework, not a policy recommendation. All figures are scenario-modeled estimates. Historical precedent strongly favors the worst-case range for occupation outcomes.

What if stabilization happens in weeks? See the Fast-Stabilization Model →