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Iran Conflict — Fast-Stabilization ModelCounterfactual

What if the administration's 4–6 week timeline holds? · All figures $B 2026 USD

Counterfactual scenario — not a prediction

Combat Wk 1–6

Transition Mo 2–6

Reconstruction Yr 1–3

Market Integration Yr 3–6

Normalized Yr 7–10

Methodology: This page models the administration's stated best-case framing: 4–6 week combat operations followed by swift stabilization. Combat cost estimate uses Penn Wharton Budget Model ($65B for 2-month operations). Gains are accelerated vs the base model because infrastructure is assumed preserved and the transition cooperative. Gulf War ($61B in 1991 ≈ $133B in 2026) serves as the closest historical analog for short-duration operations.

This is a counterfactual, not a prediction. It shows what the cost-benefit curve looks like if every major assumption in the administration's 4–6 week timeline holds. The full occupation model uses Iraq/Afghanistan precedents that historically better predict post-WWII US military outcomes in the region.

Sources: Penn Wharton Budget Model, CSIS burn-rate analysis, Brown University Costs of War Project, Harvard Kennedy School, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, EIA oil reserve data, Reuters production capacity estimates, BBC/CNBC Strait of Hormuz analysis, Sol Ability/Yahoo Finance disruption models, Jerusalem Post reconstruction estimates.

This counterfactual assumes conditions that have no direct historical precedent for a nation of Iran's size (88M), military capability (610K+ active + IRGC/Basij), and regional influence. See the full occupation model →